The number is expected to rise from around four billion this year to 7.8 billion in 2036, the airlines’ umbrella organization (IATA) reported in geneva.
The world’s most populous country will replace the u.S. As the world’s largest aviation market in five years, not seven as previously thought, according to the forecast.
The measure takes into account arriving and departing international flights as well as domestic flights. "Making sure we successfully meet these needs will be a challenge for governments and the industry," said IATA director general alexandre de juniac.
IATA forecasts 3.6 percent growth in passenger numbers for the year. Behind china and the united states, india and indonesia were allowed to become the largest markets by 2036. These are the four most populous countries, together accounting for more than 40 percent of the world’s citizens today.
Germany falls from 6th place today to 8th place according to this forecast. In 2036, more passengers would be allowed to travel in the four largest countries than in germany, including the united kingdom, japan and spain. If protectionism and travel restrictions become widespread, growth could fall well short of these expectations, IATA says. Likewise, passenger numbers could even triple by 2036 with further trade liberalizations. IATA has 275 members in 117 countries.